JP Morgan Lifts Gold Forecast to US$6,000 for Q4 2026 Amid Record Demand

Singapore — August 05, 2026. JP Morgan has raised its gold price target to a record US$6,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing surging central bank purchases and a sharp jump in retail demand—especially in markets like Singapore. The move comes as global central bank gold buying hits all-time highs, redrawing expectations for gold’s role as a safe haven asset.

JP Morgan's US$6,000 Gold Call: The Rationale

JP Morgan’s latest forecast, released today, is the most bullish among major global banks this year. The bank cited "unprecedented official sector demand" as a key driver, with central banks snapping up gold at record rates. This isn’t just a bet on inflation or geopolitical tension—though those help. It’s about structural buying by states who want to diversify away from the US dollar, a story that’s played out strongly since 2022, but now hitting new highs.

According to JP Morgan, their analysts expect gold prices to climb steadily as central banks keep accumulating. For perspective, the previous record for yearly central bank gold purchases was already broken earlier in 2026. The bank’s Q4 2026 forecast stands well above other major banks’ calls—most still hover in the US$3,000–$4,000 range. But, as someone who tracks bullion supply in Singapore, I’m not surprised. The scramble for physical metal is real—just look at how premiums on gold bars and coins have behaved recently.

Central Banks Drive the Surge—But Retail Singapore Joins In

The story isn’t just official sector demand. Retail buying in Singapore is at its highest level in years, with dealers seeing queues for both gold and silver products. I’ve watched the trend intensify since MAS began expanding its own vault infrastructure, and with new BullionStar store openings, access has never been wider. Still, supply is tight.

Here’s a quick snapshot:

Source: Industry estimates, aggregated from official and trade data.

With fierce competition for physical supply, both experienced buyers and first-timers are discovering that picking up a 1-ounce bar is no longer as simple—or as cheap—as it was just a few years ago. And the market is moving. If you missed the gold price spike earlier this year, I covered what it meant for the local scene in this analysis.

What It Means for Singapore Buyers

Will gold really hit US$6,000 by year’s end? Only time will tell. But in my decade-plus buying bullion, I’ve learned to respect the momentum when both central banks and the public are crowding into gold. Getting exposure to physical metal still makes sense for many Singaporeans, but expect higher premiums and tighter supply if JP Morgan’s call proves even half right. For a refresher on how to build a precious metals portfolio tailored to 2026’s realities, check out my latest guide.