Fed Holds Rates at 3.75–4.00% as December Hike Odds Climb, Gold Near US$4,040

Singapore — October 28, 2026. The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00% following the October FOMC meeting, but traders now peg the probability of a December hike as high as 84%. As Fed Chair Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone, gold held steady near US$4,031–4,050 per ounce, while silver touched US$53.77, according to market data.

Fed Holds, But December Rate Hike Looms

The US central bank stayed on the sidelines at its October meeting, holding the federal funds rate at a range of 3.75–4.00%. No surprises on the headline, but the real action was in the market's reaction: futures now price in an 82–84% probability of a rate increase in December, per CME FedWatch data. That's a big jump from just two weeks ago, when odds hovered below 60%.

Fed Chair Warsh, at the post-meeting press conference, made it clear that inflation risks are "not behind us yet"—and didn't rule out further tightening. The hawkish stance left traders bracing for volatility, especially with the next CPI print due in mid-November. From my years tracking these cycles, when the Fed leans hawkish but doesn't move, it often injects more uncertainty than relief.

If you're following the news from Singapore, you might recall our earlier coverage on how central bank policies shape the gold floor (see Gold Holds Near US$4,130 as October FOMC Looms; Central Banks Anchor Floor). This is a pattern I've seen time and again: even a "hold" can trigger sharp repricing if the press conference signals more hikes are coming.

Gold and Silver: Prices Hold Firm Amid Hawkish Fed

Despite the hawkish posturing, gold barely blinked, trading in a tight US$4,031–4,050 band through the Asian and early US sessions. Silver held at US$53.77, showing resilience even with rising rate expectations. As someone who's watched precious metals for over a decade, this kind of price action speaks to underlying demand—possibly from both investors worried about persistent inflation and central banks adding to reserves.

Here's a snapshot as of October 28, 2026:

Singapore buyers comparing recent premiums can check out our Practical Guide: How I Judge Economic Factors Before Buying Bullion. For those curious if platinum might offer more value, I've weighed in at Gold, Silver, or Platinum? How I Pick My First Bullion in SG. All three metals have tracked higher since September, though gold still feels like the "defensive" play whenever global central banks get nervous.

If you're looking to capitalise on current spot rates, local dealers like BullionStar are updating prices by the minute.

What This Means for Bullion Buyers

A lot of people ask: Will the December hike finally break gold's run, or just reinforce its appeal as a safe haven? My read—having lived through a few of these cycles—is that rising rate odds sometimes dent gold in the short term, but the real story is liquidity and trust in the system. If investors keep worrying about inflation or geopolitical shocks, physical demand in Singapore and across Asia is likely to stay strong.

Silver's gains, meanwhile, seem sticky. Industrial demand plus the safe-haven bid—never underestimate the silverbugs! If you'd like a deep dive into the factors I watch before making any big allocation changes, my step-by-step is here: Practical Guide: How I Judge Economic Factors Before Buying Bullion.

For now, the Fed's hawkish hold sets up a tense few weeks. But I've seen these headlines before, lah—gold, silver, and platinum buyers in Singapore aren't panicking. They're watching the data and, like me, staying nimble.